By René Geiser. China’s nuclear expansion and global nuclear order The expansion of China's nuclear arsenal has increased significantly in recent years. Forecasts by the US Department of Defence assume that China could have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. This represents a significant expansion compared to the ‘minimum nuclear deterrent’ that China has traditionally pursued. While China used to strive for a small but survivable nuclear arsenal, the current modernization signals a possible shift in the balance of power. Through the introduction of new delivery systems, more mobile launchers and the construction of intercontinental silos, China is strengthening its nuclear presence in a way that challenges US nuclear dominance in particular.