By Neslihan Yanikömer. In an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, achieving nuclear disarmament requires more than political will—it demands a robust, realistic framework for implementation and compliance. To explore what such a framework might entail, the VeSPoTec research consortium conducted a 1.5-day tabletop exercise on April 10–11, 2025, focused on irreversibility and compliance within a regional disarmament scenario.

By Josias Bruderer. The annual AFK Colloquium (AFK: Working Group for Peace and Conflict Research) took place in Landau on March 20th 2025, accompanied by the AFK Junior Researchers’ Conference (Junge AFK) on March 18th-19th 2025.

By Leonardo Bandarra. The first Nuclear Verification Winter School took place at the University of Duisburg-Essen from February 10 to 14, 2025. This four-day event was organized as part of VeSPoTec ("Verification in a Complex and Unpredictable World: Social, Political, and Technical Processes"), a research consortium funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), in collaboration with the University of Duisburg-Essen.

By Julian Schäfer. Over the past year, the VeSPoTec project has been actively involved in various events and initiatives. These activities have allowed us to share our research, collaborate with experts, and contribute to discussions on nuclear disarmament and nuclear verification. This recap provides an overview of the key events and achievements from the past year.

By René Geiser. China’s nuclear expansion and global nuclear order The expansion of China's nuclear arsenal has increased significantly in recent years. Forecasts by the US Department of Defence assume that China could have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. This represents a significant expansion compared to the ‘minimum nuclear deterrent’ that China has traditionally pursued. While China used to strive for a small but survivable nuclear arsenal, the current modernization signals a possible shift in the balance of power. Through the introduction of new delivery systems, more mobile launchers and the construction of intercontinental silos, China is strengthening its nuclear presence in a way that challenges US nuclear dominance in particular.

By Neslihan Yanikömer and Irmgard Niemeyer. On September 18, members of the research consortium VeSPoTec, Dr. Irmgard Niemeyer and Dr. Neslihan Yanikömer, hold a side event on hosted by Germany during the 68th IAEA General Conference (September 16–20, 2024). The event, titled “Navigating Crisis Scenarios in Safeguards Implementation,” assembled an expert panel to discuss strengthening IAEA safeguards in the face of crises such as armed conflicts, natural disasters, and pandemics. Nearly 50 attendees participated in this discussion on a pressing global issue.

By Lukas Rademacher. „Meeting the Moment: Nuclear Stewardship in an Age of New Technology and Global Tensions” – under this motto technical experts in the nuclear field came together at this year’s annual meeting of the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management (INMM). Although the CrowdStrike outage made attendance more difficult than expected for many, the conference nevertheless brought together more than 600 participants from around the world in Portland, Oregon. For five days (July 21-25), they discussed how nuclear safety and security can be ensured in the face of newly emerging and established threats.

By Julian Schäfer. Dr. Sophie Kretzschmar, Dr. Leonardo Bandarra, Lukas Rademacher and Julian Schäfer from VeSPoTec participated in the AMC Annual Conference Reinvigorating Nuclear Disarmament in Uppsala, Sweden from the 18-19 June 2024. Organized by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament, the event aimed to foster collaboration and innovative solutions to advance nuclear disarmament. Thus, the conference gathered experts from various disciplines to discuss the urgent need for renewed efforts in arms control and non-proliferation amidst a challenging global landscape. During the Conference, the VeSPoTec delegation presented five projects that are currently being worked on within the VeSPoTec consortium.

By Andreas Dürholt. Game Theory is a mathematical discipline to analyze strategic interaction between two or more players. In general, strategic considerations exists for thousands of years (see for instance, Sun Tzu). But Game Theory as a discipline was officially developed by John von Neumann und Oscar Morgenstern in the 1940s’, although its economic predecessors go back to previous centuries. However, Game Theory has developed from classical Game Theory to many different intertwining sub-disciplines (e.g., Evolutionary Game Theory, Algorithmic Game Theory, Behavioral Game Theory, Mechanism Design, etc.) In a game the players (which can be states, individuals, organizations, etc.) can choose between various decisions. In game theory the best decision in dependence on the opponent’s decision should be selected. These strategic considerations have been applied to international relations, especially regarding arms races, nuclear proliferation, deterrence and nuclear verification. In the context of nuclear verification, states can either cooperate or defect. Normally, countries want to check and observe the opponent’s behavior, but there are sometimes exceptions when states want to create ‘strategic uncertainty’. Accordingly, they do not always act in accordance with contracts, they could also cheat on them. However, game-theoretic models could be used to organize IAEO-inspections more thorough, and they are necessary to check whether a state is following a treaty. Consequently, by using these mathematical models, strategic loopholes can be uncovered, treaties can be designed more robust, and inspections can be arranged more efficiently.

By Julian Schäfer. Since the film ‘Oppenheimer’ at the latest, nuclear weapons and their eminent dangers have once again become the focus of public attention. The film impressively demonstrates the almost unimaginably destructive effects of even a comparatively small nuclear weapon such as ‘the Gadget’. However, the film barely touches on the devastating long-term effects that weapons of this kind have on the people and environment affected. After the Second World War, the United States of America carried out 67 nuclear tests in the Republic of the Marshall Islands over a period of 12 years and thus created a lasting nuclear largely. These included "Castle Bravo", the most powerful test of a thermonuclear device by the US, with an explosion equivalent to 1,000 of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima. To this day, these tests have had a lasting impact on the Marshallese environment and people, causing environmental degradation and intergenerational health problems for the local population. In a new publication, Linda Ostermann and Julian Schäfer conducted an interview with Benetick Kabua Maddison, Executive Director of the Marshallese Educational Initiative. The NGO aims to raise awareness of the effects of nuclear testing and climate change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). In the interview, Maddison discusses the Compact of Free Association (COFA) between the RMI and the US, which governs their political and economic relationship and advocates for a new COFA based on trust, accountability, and transparency that addresses the nuclear legacy. Furthermore, Maddison criticizes the portrayal of nuclear testing as a contribution to security, highlights the humanitarian and environmental neglect, and stresses the importance of education and global solidarity to achieve nuclear justice and address the cultural consequences of nuclear testing. The interview was published in “Peace Review: A Journal of Social Justice” under the guest editorship Leonardo Bandarra and Patrícia Nabuco Martuscelli.